Weather Accuracy Summary
| Rank | Provider | High Temp | Low Temp | Rain | No Rain | Overall |
|---|
Main Conclusions:
- Forecast Accuracy Comparison:
- Weather Underground and the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) exhibited comparable accuracy in weather forecasting. This outcome was somewhat unexpected, considering OMSZ’s presumed deeper local insights into Budapest’s weather conditions.
- Performance of Local Provider Idokep:
- Idokep’s forecasts for high temperatures were less accurate compared to the other two providers. This discrepancy could be attributed to either a strategic focus on longer-term forecasts (up to 15 or 30 days, unlike OMSZ’s 6-day limit) or a deliberate overestimation of temperatures, possibly to attract viewers who prefer warmer weather predictions. This latter hypothesis seems supported by Idokep’s high web traffic rankings (TOP10 in Hungary for 2023), unlike Weather Underground or OMSZ, which did not make the TOP100.
- In contrast, Idokep showed high accuracy in predicting rain events but was less accurate in forecasting no-rain conditions. This could be a conservative strategy, forecasting rain more frequently, leading to a positive surprise when rain is not realized, especially beneficial for planning outdoor activities.
- Forecast Time Frame Reliability:
- Weather predictions are most reliable and accurate within a 1-6 day timeframe. Beyond 15 days, forecasts tend to align more closely with historical averages rather than future specifics.
- Weather services’ ability to predict significant temperature changes—defined as a daily maximum temperature deviation of 5 degrees Celsius or more—shows reduced accuracy over forecast periods extending beyond six days. Within a 6-day window, however, predictions for both minor and major temperature fluctuations exhibit similar levels of precision.
Ranking Criteria for Forecast Providers: The ranking of weather forecast providers was based on four key metrics:
- High Temperature Accuracy: Percentage of daily maximum temperature forecasts within a 3°C range, averaged over 1 to 6 days.
- Low Temperature Accuracy: Percentage of daily minimum temperature forecasts within a 3°C range, averaged over 1 to 6 days.
- Rain Accuracy: Percentage of correctly forecasted days with more than zero mm of rain, averaged over 1 to 6 days.
- No Rain Accuracy: Percentage of correctly forecasted days with zero mm of rain, averaged over 1 to 6 days.
- Overall Indicator: The average of the above four accuracy percentages.